With a Resurgent Left, What’s Next for South America?

It may not be a return of the “Pink Tide” of leftist governments that swept into power across South America in the early 2000s—and were largely swept out again amid a conservative backlash in the mid-2010s. But the region’s left has been showing signs of a revival.

In Argentina’s October 2019 presidential election, the moderate-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, ousted the market-friendly incumbent, Mauricio Macri, whose austerity measures and heavy borrowing triggered an economic crisis that cost him the presidency. In October 2020, Bolivia returned the Movement Toward Socialism to power in the first presidential election since Evo Morales was ousted, and last year Pedro Castillo, a far-left teacher with no previous experience as an elected official, won Peru’s presidential election. Earlier this year, Gabriel Boric, a former student protest leader and leftist legislator, became the youngest president in Chile’s history after taking office in March, while Gustavo Petro became the first leftist president in Colombia’s modern history. And former Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva defeated the country’s far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro in October, in a contest in which many observers feared Brazilian democracy was also on the ballot.

The conservative wave that followed the Pink Tide, beginning with Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil in 2018, has not yet entirely receded, though. In Uruguay, conservatives took control of the government in 2019 from the leftist Broad Front coalition that had been in power for a decade and a half. Guillermo Lasso, a conservative former banker, won Ecuador’s presidential election in May 2021, while Argentina’s ruling Peronist government suffered a major setback in midterm elections in November of the same year. And Peru’s Castillo was removed from office in December 2022 after a shambolic 18 months in office that culminated in an attempted self-coup, setting off a political crisis and ongoing protests that continue to threaten the country’s democracy.

Venezuela’s regime remains as the last holdout of South America’s original Pink Tide. But the Bolivarian revolution that began under former President Hugo Chavez has transformed into an economic and humanitarian disaster under his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The attempt to dislodge Maduro and replace him with Juan Guaido in 2018 gained the support of the U.S. as well as governments across the region and the world. But that effort flagged, and Guaido was recently replaced as the leader of the political opposition, which is now struggling to maintain relevance ahead of next year’s presidential election.

Major advances in the region are also in danger. Colombia’s fragile peace process faltered after former President Ivan Duque’s hostility to the deal resulted in half-hearted implementation of its measures. Petro has promised to revive the deal with the FARC while seeking a broader peace with other insurgencies and armed groups that still operate in the country, but mistrust among the Colombian security forces could hamper his ability to implement his agenda. Meanwhile, the illicit drug trade is booming, as is organized crime, even as corruption continues to flourish. The coronavirus pandemic added another immense challenge to South America’s public health systems and economies, with implications for leaders who failed to take the threat seriously. And now the spike in food and energy prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is poised to introduce further economic upheaval, with potential political consequences.

Prior to the pandemic, Russia and China sought to deepen trade ties with countries across the region. The U.S., threatened by Moscow and Beijing’s newfound interest, has accused them of propping up corrupt governments and is taking steps to shore up its own partnerships in South America. But if last year’s Summit of the Americas, which ended up being a diplomatic fiasco, is any indication, President Joe Biden will struggle to advance U.S. interests in a region that quite simply no longer depends on Washington any longer.

WPR has covered South America in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. How will the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, combined with the impact of war in Ukraine, affect the region’s political landscape? What’s ahead in efforts to address Venezuela’s political and humanitarian crises? And how will Washington approach relations with the region’s new wave of leftist leaders to counter Russian and Chinese influence? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

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Peru’s Political Crisis Is Reawakening Echoes of Its Civil Conflict

The recent anti-government protests in Peru haven’t happened in a vacuum. Rather they are the product of decades of misrule and corruption, as well as the legacy of the country’s civil conflict, which have combined to leave rural Peruvians disenfranchised, marginalized and forgotten by Lima’s political establishment.

Politics

Right-wing and center-right governments still control Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay. In part a reaction to the years of leftist rule, the right’s rise in the late 2010s was also fueled by the emergence of major corruption scandals that tainted politicians and parties across the region. But the left has demonstrated resilience as a political force. In Bolivia, for instance, the party of former President Evo Morales regained power in the first elections after his ouster. Peruvian voters also opted for the far-left candidate Pedro Castillo in that country’s presidential election last year, although for many it was due to a lack of other acceptable options. And while Lula’s return in Brazil has captured worldwide attention, for many, Chilean President Gabriel Boric and his Colombian counterpart, Gustavo Petro, represent a “new” new left, combining a progressive vision with a pragmatic willingness to compromise.

What’s blocking the pursuit of justice and accountability for the victims of Paraguay’s Cold War-era dictatorship, in The Specter of Stroessner’s Dictatorship Still Haunts Paraguay
Why Peru’s current political impasse is a threat to the country’s democracy, in Peru’s Democracy Is Now Teetering on the Edge
How Bolivia’s government is weaponizing the criminal justice system, in The Arrest of Another Opposition Leader Puts Bolivia on Edge
How Chile hopes to avoid the pitfalls that doomed its failed constitutional referendum in a new push for reforms, in Chile Takes Another Stab at Drafting a New Constitution

Security and Drugs

The drug trade is booming, particularly in Colombia, where cocaine production is at an all-time high. That has fueled violence and put state legitimacy at risk across swathes of the continent. Some leaders, desperate for a solution, are responding with growing militarization. Meanwhile, labor advocates, Indigenous leaders and civil society remain vulnerable to political violence.

Why South America’s new crop of leftist leaders is now on the hook for the region’s deep-rooted security challenges, in Latin America’s Left Is Paying the Political Price for Security Failures
Why it’s easier to criticize the failed “war on drugs” than to develop and implement alternatives, in Ending the ‘War on Drugs’ Is Much Easier Said Than Done
Why Colombia’s new president will face fierce opposition in trying to implement his promised security reforms, in Petro and Colombia’s Armed Forces Are Heading for a Showdown
What the murder of a Paraguayan prosecutor in Colombia reveals about organized crime’s reach in South America, in A Shocking Murder Highlights South America’s Transnational Web of Crime

Venezuela

The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is deepening, even as the standoff between Maduro and the opposition seems to have been won by the Chavista regime. Though his claim to the presidency was backed by much of the continent, along with Washington, Guaido failed to dislodge Maduro. Now Maduro, who oversaw the country’s economic freefall, appears to have decisively sidelined the opposition, in part due to the support of the Venezuelan military—and Russia.

Why governments across the region should keep a close eye on cost-of-living protests in Venezuela, in Protests in Peru and Venezuela Should Be a Warning for Latin America
How recognizing Guaido as interim president ultimately created numerous foreseeable diplomatic challenges, in Recognizing Guaido as Venezuela’s President Now Looks Like a Failed Strategy
Why Venezuela’s opposition shouldn’t rule out contesting the next presidential election just yet, in Elections Are Still the Best Hope for Venezuela’s Opposition
How U.S. border policies are leaving Venezuelan refugees fleeing hopeless conditions across Latin America in limbo, in Venezuelans Seeking Asylum Now Have No Good Options

Corruption

Corruption scandals, which proliferated under the left-wing administrations of the Pink Tide, helped drive the ascent of the right. But the scandal involving payoffs by the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht across the region also took down center-right politicians. Corruption remains high on the list of voters’ grievances, even as the pandemic has increased both the opportunities for and the costs of graft and impunity. Unless it is brought under control, corruption might ultimately undermine the region’s democratic institutions.

Why a corruption scandal could make Uruguay’s president politically toxic in the runup to next year’s elections, in A Corruption Scandal Is Making Waves in ‘Squeaky-Clean’ Uruguay
Why Castillo could be the next Peruvian president brought down by corruption charges, in Peru’s Castillo Is His Own Worst Enemy
Why both candidates in Peru’s presidential election spelled trouble for the country’s anti-corruption campaign, in Either Way, Peru’s Election Is Bad News for Anti-Graft Efforts
Why now is the wrong time for South America to let up on its anti-corruption efforts, in Latin America’s Anti-Corruption Drive Has Stalled at the Worst Possible Time

Trade and Economic Development

Moscow and Beijing have been eager to increase their economic ties to South America, leveraging the unease that was caused by former President Donald Trump’s mixed messages to the region. Washington has pushed back, warning that the two powers are looking to sow disorder on the continent. Meanwhile, South American economies, already hard-hit by the coronavirus pandemic, are in for more turmoil due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.